The NY Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March “fell thirty-four points to -21.5, its largest point drop on record, and its lowest level since 2009” (a reading below 0.0 indicates contraction). The survey responses were collected from March 2nd through March 10th, a period which included stock market gyrations and the escalating Coronavirus pandemic, although neither of those topics was mentioned in the report. Although New Orders (down -31.4 points to -9.3) and Shipments (down -20.6 to -1.7) fell sharply, the downturn in other measures, including Unfilled Orders, Delivery Time, Inventories, Prices Paid, Prices Received, Number of Employees and Average Employee Workweek, was more muted as each was down less than -10 points. The same was true of the Forward-Looking Indicators which measure sentiment six months from now. Although the main index fell -21.7 points to 1.2, all the constituent measures, though down, remained in positive territory and fell less than -10 points.
