The largest-ever drop in the 17-year history of the NY Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey puts statewide manufacturing in negative territory this month. The general business conditions index dropped 26.4 points to -8.6, its lowest level in over two years (a reading below 0 indicates contraction). New Orders and Unfilled Orders were off sharply, down 21.7 points to -12.0 and down 17.9 points to -15.8, respectively. Shipments, Delivery Time, Inventories and Average Work Week were all down in negative territory, too.
The survey “was shockingly weak, raising a caution flag…” according to Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc., however Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes the June survey “was likely just a temporary response to the Mexico tariff fiasco.” Both quotes are from reporting by MarketWatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/empire-state-manufacturing-index-posts-largest-ever-drop-into-negative-territory-in-june-2019-06-17)