After its largest drop in over three years, the NY Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business conditions index rose 4.9 points to 8.8, recovering two thirds of last month’s loss (a reading above zero indicates expansion). New Orders turned up for the first time in the last four months as did Unfilled Orders, Delivery Time, Inventories and Prices Received. Interestingly, according to the NY Fed, “the prices paid index fell for a third consecutive month…indicating a continued slowing of input price increases.” This survey mirrors the national PMI Index of the Institute for Supply Management which also rebounded last month, after a sharp drop in December. Index volatility is likely to continue amidst US-China trade negotiations, Brexit uncertainty, market fluctuations and other factors.
